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Match- Atlanta United hosts CF Montreal
Pick- Atlanta 1st Half Win +105
The rebuilt Atlanta United might be one of the most anticipated returns in MLS. While they came out the gate hot, winning their first MLS Cup in just their second MLS season, they have since oscillated between success and failure.
This offseason, they brought in Emmanuel Latte Lath, which alone could have been transformational. But, not to be outdone by any other Eastern Conference team, they also decided to reunite with Miguel Almiron. Paired with Alexey Miranchuk and Seba, Atlanta has what could be one of the most exciting offenses we have seen.
This week Atlanta hosts CF Montreal. While Montreal is an average team, they did not make moves this offseason to improve their starting 11. They addressed depth in a few key areas, but their defense is the same, so I expect a similar road form to last year. On the road in 2024, Montreal had 3 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses while conceding 2.41 goals per game, including 1.06 goals in the first half of these matches (keep that in mind, it will be important).
Atlanta is going to want to come out firing, like they did in their last MLS match against Montreal where Atlanta scored 2 in the first half. I can’t bet on Atlanta straight at an unfavorable -155, but I could certainly bet on Atlanta to win the first half at +105. That will be my first official play.
Match- FC Cincinnati hosts New York Red Bulls
Pick- RBNY Draw No Bet +140
For the second match of this slate, I am pulling from a place where the odds just don’t match the two teams on the field. Earlier in the week the Red Bulls were as high as +270, although now they are closer to +225. The same Red Bulls team went 7-7-7 on the road last season and beat Cincinnati twice in 2024 (by a 3-1 and 2-1 score line). Odds being at +270 would be an implied probability of 27.03% chance at winning, which I don’t think reflects reality. Part of that has already been corrected as the odds have dipped throughout the week.
The Red Bulls are arguably the better team in a bubble. They improved on their 2024 squad which saw them head to MLS Cup, and this week they will have their main conduit in attack Emil Forsberg healthy and available. They do have a chance to win, and the draw was always a possibility last season, hitting 14 times in 34 regular season matches of 2024.
In comparison, Cincinnati will be giving their new signings Evander and Keven Denkey their debut. While both players played midweek on Wednesday with great results, I think they may need time to build chemistry before taking on top MLS defenses. While their 4-1 win over Motagua midweek in CONCACAF was decisive, I also believe this result among a much lesser opponent was not an accurate measure of the team or their chemistry as a whole.
I don’t want to lose a ton of juice betting the double chance, so my play here is Red Bulls on a “draw no bet,” where I can get protection against the draw while still putting myself in the race for a nice +140 win. It is also fun rooting for your own team, and I will be rooting for Red Bull NY to pull out some road magic.
Match- Houston Dynamo host FC Dallas
Pick- Dallas Win or Draw -105
Pick- Dallas Team Total O1.5 +180
When the Houston Dynamo sold star center back Macael without any contingency plan, I knew I was going to jump on them to concede some goals early in the season. While I think Houston and Dallas are both competitive, Dallas is the one squad that got definitely better this offseason, namely with the addition of Luciano Acosta.
Luciano Acosta should bring life to the Dallas offense, which had only 1 road win in 2024. They scored only 1.18 goals per match on the road last year, but I see that number going up as Acosta connects with Petar Musa, Dallas’s DP striker. Dallas had a 2-0 win over Houston at home and a 1-1 draw on the road, and here I think they will find the back of the net twice and leave with a win.
Adding to Houston’s defensive hole, they will also be without two wingers Ennali and Quinones. They let legendary midfielder Hector Herrera go this offseason. It could take a while for Houston to get going this season, so it will be a trend for me to hound them early.
Two official plays for me are Dallas on the double chance at -105 and the Dallas team total over 1.5 goals at +180.
Match- St. Louis City hosts the Colorado Rapids
Pick- St. Louis City Win -110
If I just discussed Houston being a team I will be fading early, St. Louis City is the one team that I will be high on early. St. Louis City did their big signings last season, bringing in Cedric Teuchert and Marcel Hartel, and allowing them to build chemistry over the latter part of the 2024 season. They did just that, with Hartel combining for 3 goals and 5 assists in 9 matches, and Teuchert racking up 5 goals and 4 assists in just 754 minutes.
The St. Louis City roster is mostly returning and should have chemistry during a part of the season where other teams may struggle. In this particular match, they face off against the Colorado Rapids who just played a CONCACAF match midweek, and might not have the legs at this part of the year to play their press heavy Chris Armas-approved style.
St. Louis City went 5-2 in their last 7 home matches of 2024, and I expect some surprising momentum heading into 2024. When we can bet early season home favorites at nearly even money, we have to pounce. At -110, this pick needs no dance partner and can stand alone as a decent-enough odds home bet.
Match- San Jose Quakes host Real Salt Lake
Pick- San Jose Win +120
Our last sportsbook pick for MLS matchday 1 features last season’s Wooden Spoon recipient, the San Jose Earthquakes. The Quakes had 6 wins, 3 draws, and 25 losses in 2024, giving them the worst points total in MLS. They conceded 78 goals, also most in MLS, and scored 41, which was 6th worst.
While they host an RSL team who finished 3rd in the West last year, there are a few storylines at play which I will be focusing on.
First, Chicho Arango switched sides, and now the best player on the field will suit up for San Jose instead of RSL. San Jose also brought in the legendary MLS and USMNT coach Bruce Arena to fix this broken squad. Lastly, they let Bruce bring in “his guys”- players with whom he was familiar, including Ian Harkes, Mark Anthony-Kaye, and Dave Romney. There is no question that the spine of this team will be improved under Arena; he has the talent and the tactics to turn San Jose around.
For Real Salt Lake, they did not replace their striker and will be likely sending out Forster Ajago, a 23 year old with no MLS goals. Young winger Diego Luna is still recovering from an elbow to the face during his last USMNT match, and we are still waiting on Diogo Goncalves to step into the DP #10 that RSL thought he was going to become (and I still believe, albeit not this week).
San Jose is the most plausible home winner that currently sits at plus money, so my last official play will be San Jose with their first home win of 2025.
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