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Match- Orlando City hosts Toronto FC
Pick- Orlando Win & O2.5 +124
Orlando City hosts Toronto FC this weekend in my first official play of MLS Matchday 2. While Orlando City fell 2-4 against the Philadelphia Union last week, Toronto drew DC United by a score of 2-2. Both matches saw GOALS so I went to the over of 2.5 goals and wanted to lock it in a same game parlay.
Orlando has issues on defense including the availability of Robin Jansson, leaving them with two ‘squad rotation’ quality centerbacks in Brekalo and Schlegel. They are going to concede goals if they don’t get that straightened out. Meanwhile, early signs of life from Marco Pasalic have me thinking Orlando is going to be in their fair share of high scoring matches this season.
Toronto has a new coach in Robin Fraser who inherited one of the worst teams from 2024. Their investment in Lorenzo Insigne and inability to transfer him leaves Toronto with one of the worst rosters to start this MLS season. I think the uncertainty of Toronto’s roster, paired with a new coach, is enough to give Orlando the edge this weekend.
Orlando, at -185, is a team the sportsbooks are expecting to have an easy match. I do, too, and pairing a simple home win with a likely over of 2.5 goals gets us a healthy +124 to start this weekend’s slate.
Match- Sporting KC host the San Jose Earthquakes
Pick- San Jose DNB +140
Sporting KC had a bit of schedule congestion early this season, as they just got eliminated from Inter Miami from CONCACAF Champions Cup. This will be Sporting KC’s fourth game this season, and all three prior matches resulted in losses. In comparison, their opponent San Jose have just played one match, a 4-0 win over Real Salt Lake last week.
While RSL rotated a ton of players in their 4-0 loss to San Jose, those rotation pieces are probably still better than anything Sporting KC has to offer, even if they were rested and at full strength. For that reason, I have a heavy lean on San Jose in this match. With the draw no bet option set at +140, that is my official pick for this match.
San Jose has shown improvement across one match, and the truth is that I trust Bruce Arena. I think he is on a redemption tour, looking to repair his reputation after an unceremonious firing from New England. He brought in his own guys AND star Chicho Arango, making San Jose an improved squad from a player standpoint. His tactical ability and experience as an MLS coach also immediately improves this team.
The important part here is that we get refunded if there is a draw. I don’t know if San Jose is quite ready to be a road warrior just yet, but at +140 on a DNB, I’ll pay to see that information on what I think are fantastic odds.
Match- San Diego FC hosts St. Louis City
Pick- San Diego +100
This week we will be treated to a home debut by San Diego FC. They are coming off of a 2-0 road win against the LA Galaxy and will face the “How are they Western Conference?” St. Louis City who is flying across the country to visit what I expect to be a fantastic San Diego home crowd.
While St. Louis drew Colorado in a scoreless 0-0 draw last weekend, they did have 2.01 expected goals. I think they will be a good team, but I think the weekly travel to yet another West Coast team could be detrimental to their success, particularly this early in the MLS season.
San Diego, on the other hand, is off of a 2-0 beating of the LA Galaxy, last year’s MLS Cup winner. They saw their wingers Hirving Lozano and Anders Dreyer combine for an early goal and were able to shut the door on the Galaxy. Later, Tomas Angel showed he is a bit of his father’s son as he connected on a long ball from, and then back to, Anders Dreyer for Dreyer’s 2nd goal, and the 2nd in SDFC history.
Even odds at +100 for a home team, in their first professional home match, after already proving they are MLS quality? Yes, please. I will take San Diego at +100 in the 10:30 PM ET Saturday match.
Match- Houston Dynamo host Inter Miami
Pick- Miami TT O1.5 +110
This weekend’s Sunday prime time 7:00 PM ET matchup has the Houston Dynamo hosting Inter Miami (surprise!). Houston, in their first home match last week, conceded 2 goals and fell to FC Dallas. This week they face off against the team with the most goals just a season ago, Inter Miami.
While I could discuss Miami’s star power, their ability to score, or their success so far this season (scoring 16 goals in 3 matches and 3 friendlies), I instead wanted to highlight Houston’s defensive issues. Last week I discussed their trading of Micael, but they also played centerback Steres out left for Franco Escobar (who subbed but is not quite 90 minutes fit), leaving Obafemi Awodesu and Ethan Bartlow in the center, who are arguably now 3rd and 4th (formerly 4th and 5th) on the depth chart.
You don’t want to be struggling on defense when Inter Miami is headed to town, especially while knowing you’re losing your home field advantage for the Messi Show. While Inter Miami is on very short rest and traveling, I can’t trust their defense to win outright, so I am getting creative here with the Miami team total over on 1.5 goals at +110. Houston was a defensive powerhouse in the past, so we are still getting a good number here based on last year’s work.
I will keep picking on Houston until Ben Olsen does something to turn this team around.
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