Best Bets for MLS Week 9

Match- Austin FC host LA Galaxy

This week, MLS Week 9, starts off with a snoozer.  Austin FC hosts the LA Galaxy in a Saturday matinee at 1:45 PM ET at Q2 Stadium in Texas.  While Austin is 2-1-1 at home, the Galaxy are 0-2-2 on the road.  While this may look predictable from a win/loss standpoint, I am taking the edge on betting unders for this match. 

From a pure numbers standpoint, Austin has 3 goals 2 goals against at home this season, seeing only 5 total goals in 4 matches.  On the other hand, the LA Galaxy have just 4 goals and 7 against on the road, for a total of 11 goals in 4 matches. While 2 of those 4 matches went over 2.5 goals, those were both losses to Minnesota and Portland, two teams with potent offenses this season. 

Pick- Under 2.5 Goals +112

I can see this game being low scoring, all things considered.  Austin hasn't gotten off on the right foot on offense (Brandon Vazquez, anybody?), and Galaxy haven't found road form. By my betting model, we are actually getting a good advantage against the sportsbook here, and when my head and the numbers point the same direction, I take those bets.  

Match- CF Montreal hosts Orlando City

An interesting match in MLS Week 8 sees CF Montreal hosting only their 2nd home match of 2025 against Orlando City. Montreal lost their first match against Charlotte, but had a higher xG (1.94 to 1.12) and put 4 of their 17 shots on target. They also dominated possession, holding almost 70% of the ball. 

Orlando, on the road, has 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss on the season.  Their lone win was to the lowly LA Galaxy, while they had draws against RBNY and Philadelphia, with the loss coming from NYCFC.  With 5 goals and 5 goals against, their goal differential is at an even 0.  

Pick- CF Montreal DNB -105

Montreal have to turn it around, and I think this game is where that can start.  They only have 4 goals in 8 matches, and I think they can light it up against a poor Orlando defense, made poorer by the suspension of Rodrigo Schlegel. 

CF Montreal generally have a good home advantage, but these past two seasons starting with a road trip have them at a disadvantage.  In this match, I see Montreal getting their first home win (and first win) of the season.  

Match- Philadelphia Union host Atlanta United

The Philadelphia Union have 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches. Their form has been on the back of a slumping offense, where Philadelphia has only scored 3 times in their last 5 matches, after starting the season with 10 goals in their first 3. While there is no doubt some of that offensive burst to start the season was Carnell's coaching hire, I also think there is no doubt that without top end talent (like Daniel Gazdag, who was sold earlier last week) they will continue to struggle on offense. 

In MLS Week 8, the Philadelphia Union host Atlanta United, a squad loaded with talent but unable to catch a strong run of form.  Players like Emmanuel Latte Lath, Miguel Almiron, and Aleksey Miranchuk all need to do better, and I think this week will be a good test for them.  

Pick- Atlanta United DNB +150

The odds for this match see the Philadelphia Union as heavy home favorite, based on what they had done earlier this season rather than what they are capable of now.  While Atlanta are long odds, as they should be, I see incredible value on taking them on the Draw No Bet at +150. 

My betting model has Atlanta United winning more than 7% of what most sportsbooks are offering as an implied probability.  While this bet is a longer shot than any other in the article, it comes with the biggest reward at +150, and also protects against the draw possibility.  

Match- St. Louis City hosts Vancouver Whitecaps

Week 8 MLS play sees two Western Conference teams matchup when Vancouver travels to St. Louis City.  St. Louis City has been streaky yet predictable; they started with 2 draws, than 2 wins, and now are on a 4 game losing streak. 

Vancouver Whitecaps are both predictable and good.  They just beat Austin 5-1, bringing their season record to 6-1-1.  Included in that record are two away victories, over FC Dallas and Portland Timbers, and a draw with Toronto FC. 

St. Louis City will once again be without Roman Burki, Rasmus Alm, and Christ Durkin, and also have Totland, Lowen, and Horn currently questionable.  That is enough to force a pro-Vancouver play. 

Pick- Vancouver Whitecaps DNB +115

While St. Louis City are in poor form, I do think they will win games this season, especially at home.  I will hesitantly pick on them this week while seeking safety with the Draw No Bet option at +115. 

Vancouver have 5 goals and only 1 allowed in 3 road games this season.  They are playing as good as any team on the road right now, and I like them to win outright.  Because of far travel, moving multiple time zones west to east, and general uncertainty on a team I do like (in St. Louis), I will save myself from the draw with a play favoring the away side, Vancouver.

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