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MLS Best Bets- Picks for 3.9.2024

Match- Atlanta United hosts the New England Revolution

Pick- Atlanta United -140

Atlanta United is one of those teams who hasn’t yet scored a goal in the 2024 MLS season, but here I am taking them to win at home against the New England Revolution.  This pick is equal parts “something’s gotta give” for Atlanta and congestion concerns for the New England Revolution.  

Part of the reason Atlanta was getting dragged through the mud for offensive woes is their week 1 bye.  A 90 minute stretch without scoring in a random July match is overlooked, but when it starts the season it is seen as an indictment of an underperforming offense.  This Atlanta squad has too much talent to be condemned after a loss at the Columbus Crew, somewhere that has been a home fortress over the past few seasons. 

I also like Giakoumakis and Thiago Almada to score, but we will have to check in closer to game time to see those odds.  

Match- NYCFC hosts the Portland Timbers

Pick- Portland Timbers or Draw -105

NYCFC is a bad MLS team.  Say it out loud with me.  

I expect NYCFC to be better at “home” this season, but Yankee Stadium is still a horrible place to play a soccer match. This week, they face a tough Portland Timbers opponent who is +310 to win (which I’ll sprinkle in my betting, too).  These numbers are just disrespectful for Portland, who sits near the top of the west with a win and a draw.  Comparatevely, NYCFC has two losses and has conceded 3 goals while scoring none.  

A key to this match, and one reason I’m not picking Portland outright, is the availability of Evander.  I think a player of his caliber could be especially effective on the futsal-sized New York pitch, and is an availability I will keep an eye on throughout the week. 

As far as NYCFC goes, I think this attack is going to struggle all season.  They have a lot of faith in young attackers like Mounsef Bakrar and Talles Magno who have yet to put through any real contribution.  Portland’s defense, now with Kamal Miller and Máxime Crepeau, should be able to hand them a clean sheet.  

Match- Philadelphia Union host Seattle Sounders

Pick- Philadelphia Union +120

The Seattle Sounders’ offense looks broken this season, and recently we found out about the 6-8 week hamstring injury to Pedro de la Vega.  This team will struggle greatly against a tough Philadelphia Union defense that played 33% better at home in 2023. 

Philadelphia Union play a midweek match, and that is baked into these odds already, which would be -140 on an even playing field.  Here I am looking at the experience and cohesion to carry the Union to a victory.  It could also be a blessing in disguise that Julian Carranza missed the CONCACAF midweek match- if he is healthy and fresh he can have a great weekend. 

Match- Nashville SC host the LA Galaxy

Pick- LA Galaxy +210, Under 2.5 Goals +100

Nashville SC host the LA Galaxy this weekend, and we have talked quite a bit about LA Galaxy being a contender this season.  If they want to take that next step, they will need to kick Nashville while they are down.  

Nashville is expected to be without striker Sam Surridge again this week, however Haney Mukhtar did return to full training. The problem is relying on just one player to provide an offensive spark led Nashville to struggle through the second half of 2023.  

On the Galaxy side, while I do expect them to pick up an elusive away win, I don’t think this is a total blowout.  Galaxy could struggle to break down the best defenses this season, so I look for a 1-0 result.   


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