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MLS Matchday 12- Best bets for May 4, 2024

Match- Atlanta United host Minnesota United

Pick- Atlanta United -138

Giakoumakis subbed in the 60th minute for Atlanta last weekend in a 0-0 draw in Chicago, signaling he will be fit for this weekend’s match.  That makes a huge difference for me, as he is one of the top strikers in the league. Atlanta has 2 points per game at home this season, after having 2.06 points per game at home through all of 2023.  One of the best home field advantages in MLS should push Atlanta to a win here. 

As for Minnesota, they have been hot and getting results, but I don’t think they are nearly as good as their 5-2-2 record shows.  They have been scoring with wingers like Lod and Hlongwane, or with subs like Tani Oluwaseyi, who has been unreal with 4 goals and 2 assists in only 286 minutes.  This is not sustainable throughout the season, and I think they struggle this week. 

Match- Charlotte FC hosts Portland Timbers

Pick- Portland Timbers Team Total over 1.5 Goals +162

Portland Timbers have been scoring early and often this season, to a clip of 20 goals in their first 10 matches.  This week I see them scoring multiple goals against Charlotte FC, who has allowed 5 goals in their last 2 home matches- one against Toronto and another against Minnesota.  

The fact is, Portland is set up like both of those teams, with top level wingers in Antony and Santiago Moreno, but also have an elite #10 in Evander and two great center forwards in Jonathan Rodriguez and Felipe Mora.  

The only time that Portland hasn’t scored two goals this season is against the Houston Dynamo, which is a very tough defense.  Charlotte has not been a good defense this season; they look disinterested especially in that Minnesota home game.  

Match- Inter Miami hosts RBNY

Pick- Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS -110

These two teams matched up earlier this season in Red Bull Arena and Red Bulls made a statement 4-0 win.  That game had no Messi, but it did have Lewis Morgan with 3 goals and Dante Vanzier with 4 assists.  The Red Bulls had only 37.3% possession and still managed 6 of 13 shots on target and 4 in the net. The faster, younger legs and the press really took advantage of an Inter Miami defense that has allowed 15 goals in 10 matches.  

This week, things have changed. Miami should be seeing a healthy dose of Lionel Messi, while Red Bull will be without Noah Eile who will be serving a red card suspension.  In his place, Andres Reyes is back from his red card suspension, but at this point I think Noah Eile is the better distributor and maybe even the better center back.  

This match is going to see a lot of Red Bull pressing and taking advantageous turnovers, and if they find the back of the net then both the over and the both teams to score should pay easily. 

Match- Chicago Fire hosting New England Revolution

Pick- Under 2.5 Goals +110

This pick has a lot to do with math and seeing one of the worse games on this slate.  These bottom-dwellers have combined for 16 total goals in 17 total matches.  Chicago Fire haven’t scored in 3 matches, and have been  kept scoreless 3 times so far this season, while the New England Revolution have also been kept scoreless 3 times. 

Adding to the ineptitude of these offenses at full strength, Chicago Fire saw Shaqiri leave the field last week, we won't know about that injury until later this week.  New England has had a rotation of offensive weapons including Vrioni just not paying out.  They’re relying on Charles Gil and I don’t even know what plan B is at this point. Take the under of 2.5 goals at +110. 

Match- NYCFC hosts Colorado Rapids

Pick- Colorado Rapids + Draw -106

This is the 5th home match of a little early season homestand for NYCFC, and one which they will be playing in Citi Field. NYCFC have had a little resurgence lately, possibly even moving Nick Cushing off the hot seat, but I also think this is the one where the home magic wears off and we see MLS veteran head coach Chris Armas coach a better match than NYCFC’s Nick Cushing.  

Colorado is looking much better this season sitting at 4-3-3 and have a 2-2-2 record on the road.  


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