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MLS Matchday 13 Best Picks for May 11, 2024

Match- Montreal hosts Inter Miami

Pick- 2nd half most goals -105

Last time we saw this matchup, there were 4 2nd half goals. In fact, there were 4 goals after the 70th minute.  This bet looks good out the gate, and it only gets better the deeper we dig.  When we look at Inter Miami breakdown by halves we see they scored 22 goals and allowed 9, for 31 total second half goals, as compared to seeing only 19 first half goals in that same span. If I you want to look more closely and isolate their road numbers, Miami has scored 3 and allowed 4 goals away in the first half, totaling 7 goals.

Montreal is also seeing more goals in the second half, though their numbers are less stark.  This is a very likely outcome, and at -105 this is one of my best bets for the week. 

Match- LAFC vs Vancouver

Pick- Vancouver +.5 +125

Vancouver’s last road loss was against LAFC when they lost 3-0 in concacaf champions cup on April 23rd. Since then , they have 3 wins and a draw on the road. There is no reason Vancouver can’t come in with a good performance and leave with 3 points, and here we also get the draw insurance for plus money. 

LAFC has been beatable, and they have a midweek match vs Las Vegas lights.  I don’t expect them to go all out, but it's another complication in their weekly plans. Another way to think is Vancouver at +400, because history be damned- there's no reason Vancouver can’t win this game.  Whether or not you like the win outright, the odds here aren’t what they should be, so I am jumping on this bet a few different ways. 

Match- Charlotte hosts Nashville

Pick- Nashville +.5 -120

We see these two familiar foes face off during rivalry week, where Nashville has the 2-1-1 advantage.  Historically, this has been a Nashville-centric matchup; Nashville won 2-1 last time they were in Charlotte.

Nashville's offense woke up last week, with a great sign of Yearwood fitting in with 2 assists, Mukhtar with an assist, and Surridge with a hattrick.  They had 19 shots and 7 shots on target vs Montreal, and got a hefty 3.9 xG in the process. The best part?  They didn’t need Mukhtar Magic and still found a win. 

I don’t think Nashville is magically fixed- they still have struggles, but with Walker Zimmerman back this team has found hope and life.  That is something Charlotte can’t say; they shipped off DP Enzo Copetti earlier this week, and have shown nothing so far this season. 

Nashville is +275 this week, and I wouldnt blame you for dabbling with that number, either.  I’m taking the insurance with Nashville +.5 at -120. 

Match- Toronto FC hosts NYCFC

Pick- Toronto +195

NYCFC has 1 draw and 3 losses on the road this season, in contrast to their 4-1-2 home record.  They have a -3 goal differential on the road and a +3 goal differential at home.  Worse than that, they have only scored 1 time in their 4 away matches.  None of that looks good when they head to a young, energized Toronto team this weekend.  

Toronto has been buzzing so far this season, with 4 home matches and only 1 home loss.  They are on a little hot streak led by the unbelievable recent form of Federico Bernardeschi.  In the last 3 games, Bernardeschi has 2 goals and 2 assists while putting 6 of his 15 shots on frame.  

This game has the chance to see a few likely heroes- Owusu has 5 goals in 653 minutes this season.  Toronto has also seen their draft pick Spicer playing well, and may even see Insigne take the field in this one.  

In the end, NYCFC has done NOTHING to be shooting Toronto up to +195 in Toronto.  This is a bet Vegas is begging you to take, and I will happily oblige.  


As always, i80 Sports suggests you check local laws before placing any sports wager.  The odds you see here are from legal sports betting outlets in the state of NJ. It is your responsibility to know and to follow the law. 

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