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MLS Matchday 15 Best Picks for May 18, 2024

Match- Charlotte FC host LA Galaxy

Pick- LA Galaxy DNB +140

Charlotte has been on a bit of a winning streak, which pushed this line to be very valuable from an LA Galaxy standpoint. In those three matches, in fact, Charlotte allowed 0 TOTAL goals.  Yes, they have three straight shutouts. I am taking the Draw No Bet option for LA to win at +140. 

Now the LA Galaxy is in town, and I am seeing some more goals in this fixture.  The Galaxy have scored 23 times in 12 matches and have a +4 goal differential.  On the road they are earning 1.5 points per game, and are scoring on just about the same clip, with 14 scores and 12 allowed.  

I think Charlotte are going to face a correction, they just sold their DP striker Enzo Copetti, and their projection from now until the transfer window is all downhill.  Love the odds, and the safety of the DNB on this pick. 

Match- NYCFC hosts Red Bull NY

Pick- RBNY +220

Red Bull has a 15-4-8 lead in this matchup historically, in a matchup that has seen only 14.8% of their matchups go to a draw.  For comparison, this season MLS has a 28% draw rate, so RBNY vs NYCFC is HALF of that.  There’s just no value on the draw play, the DNB, or any spread insurance.  I am taking Red Bull and the +220 odds as the SUPERIOR team heads to the baseball stadium.  

An oddity of this season is that NYCFC is 6-2-5.  I don’t think they are as good as their record shows, and I think Red Bull, who is only traveling a few miles this week (Harrison to DC to the Bronx) has an advantage.  They have a better squad, their defense is in for a rebound (their opponent’s G-XG is +4.3, which is 4th worst in the league), and we see a great coach in Sandro Schwartz go up against the poor little opponent punching Nick Cushing.  

Match- Minnesota United hosts Portland Timbers

Pick- Minnesota United -125

Portland Timbers have an awesome offense, as shown by Cabecita and Evander earlier this week.  However, it took them going up a man and getting a SHAM opponent red card and penalty for them to even tie that match.  Before that play, San Jose was pretty dominant.  

This weekend, Portland faces off against Minnesota United, a team who has been overperforming for weeks now, so much so that I’m starting to actually change my mind on them.  While Minnesota is near the bottom of the table with only 1.5 points per game at home, They have also had a very difficult set of home games thus far.  I see this as a chance for a correction against the Timbers, who were blanked on their last road trip against Charlotte a few weeks ago.  

Match- Toronto FC hosts CF Montreal

Pick- Toronto FC -112

Toronto has a bunch of players fresh from sitting the midweek match, whether they wanted to or not.  We also saw another half hour of Insigne midweek, which points to a positive trend for this weekend.  Toronto is just BETTER than Montreal, they’re going to be fired up, and this “live by the sword die by the sword” emotional side is going to take out their frustrations against a team that, in recent matches, has outplayed Toronto. 


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