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MLS Matchday 17 picks and predictions

Match- RBNY hosts Orlando City

Pick- RBNY -150

As RBNY keep rolling, we keep rolling with RBNY in profitable home bets.  They haven’t traveled since hosting Charlotte mid-week, and are probably a touch more rested from Orlando who traveled from Orlando to Chicago to New Jersey.  I looked for ways to get more profitable odds, but the juice just wasn’t worth the squeeze.  Im taking Red Bulls at -150.  

RBNY has 2.33 points per game at home this weekend, and are still undefeated in Harrison.  They have only conceded 5 goals at home, where they have shown reflections of their elite defense from 2023.  They are allowing .83 goals per game at home, and they look to be in good shape hosting Orlando this weekend.  

Orlando has been good on the road this season, but their opponents have not been great.  They beat Philadelphia, San Jose, and DC United while drawing Chicago and Montreal.  This will be their biggest road test, and could be missing their top attacker Duncan McGuire.  

Ride with the Red Bulls while they remain hot.

Match- Chicago Fire host LA Galaxy

Pick- LA Galaxy +175

Chicago remains one of the worst teams in Major League Soccer, so we will continue to pick on them.  The official play here is LA Galaxy +175 at great away-team odds.  

Chicago is so bad they have only .89 points per game at home this season, coming from 2 wins, 2 draws, and 5 losses.  Their awful -7 home goal differential at home is one of the worst in major league soccer, and they will be hopeless without huge pieces this week; Gutman, Gasper, Salquist, and Shaqiri are all listed as “out” while Navarro remains questionable. 

The LA Galaxy have 2 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses on the road this season, while scoring 14 times and conceding just 12.  They are clearly the better team, and will take advantage with their great wing play from Pec and Fagundez (maybe a Paintsil cameo?) against a poor Chicago defense. At +175 this is the best away matchup for your sportsbook play this weekend.  

Match- Portland Timbers host Houston Dynamo

Pick- Portland +120

Portland has an elite offense and one of the worst defenses in Major League Soccer.  They are scoring 2.29 points per game at home, and this week have a challenge in a usually-conservative Houston Dynamo side.  

This is another match where I was looking for better odds; Portland usually offers a great parlay with both teams to score or with over picks.  Unfortunately, this match is against the Dynamo which is stingy on defense- they are only seeing a total of 2.13 goals per match for both sides, and not doing a whole lot of scoring themselves.  

Can Evander and Cabacita put through 3 between the two of them? Possibly, but as Portland continues to improve all I can offer is a straight bet at +120.

Match- Atlanta United host Charlotte FC

Pick- Atlanta TT U1.5 Goals -105

This is a capper’s cap supported by numbers and some recent team changes for Atlanta United.  First, we will see that Atlanta has scored under 2 goals in 9 of their 15 2024 matches.  Next, we can see that their last 3 of 4 home matches have been under 2 goals scored, and they have only scored 3 goals once.  While those numbers alone are astounding, you can also see that of the 6 times this season they scored 2 goals or more, only 1 was without Giakoumakis (who will not play this week amid trade speculations), and that match was against the shambolic Philadelphia defense.  

Complicating matters for Atlanta, Charlotte has a top defense this season.  They have only allowed 2 or more goals in 4 of their 16 2024 matches.  They are conceding only 1.43 goals per game away, and have the third lowest expected goals in MLS.  

Charlotte COULD go out and get the outright win, but Atlanta clearly has higher class players.  I don’t think they find the net twice, so my play here is the Atlanta team total under 1.5 goals at -105. 


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